The game gives you a minimum number of cards allowed of 40 and a max number of each card of 4. Indeed, you could probably make a winning deck with 3 copies of each of those and nothing else. If we can make a deck where we will have the maximum probability of drawing Kristoffer, Puwen, Aldon, Fireball and Supernova, we have a good chance of winning. Since many effective winning plans can be put together with just a few target cards, it is generally a good idea to maximize your probability of drawing those cards. There is a nice page that will calculate probabilities of drawing specific cards here. So drawing 2 gives me a 50% chance of getting the Jack of Spades. When you combine them, there is a 50/50 chance that the Jack of Spades will wind up in the 2 cards I drew, or the two cards left in the deck. Now if I have 1 Jack of Spades in a 4 card deck, the first card I draw has a 1/4 chance of being a Jack of Spades, and if it isn’t the next card I draw will have a 1/3 chance of being a jack of spades. More cards drawn = better chance of getting target card If I increase my deck size to 10, I’ll still have a 4/10 chance to draw a Jack of Spades. Similarly, if I have 4 Jack of Spades in a deck of 4 cards, my chances of drawing a Jack of Spades now goes up to 100%. More Target cards = better chance of getting target card For this reason, if drawing a Jack of Spades will make me win, I want to minimize the size of my deck. If I increase the deck size to 10, my probability will drop to 1/10. If I have 1 Jack of Spades shuffled in a deck of 4 cards, and I draw one, then I’ll have a probability of 1/4 to draw that Jack of Spades. Smaller Deck = better chance of getting target card The most important thing to know about it is that it is tied to deck size, number of matching cards within the deck, and number of cards drawn. The math behind figuring out the probability of drawing a single card in a deck is complex (you can read about it here). But it’s not always true, and to understand those exceptions (like 80 card Garth decks) you need to first understand the rule. So, if you want to draw fireball consistently, you should have 4 copies of fireball in a 40 card deck. This is the prevailing wisdom in most trading card games and generally holds true for Shadow Era. In order to have a competitive deck – your deck needs to have the minimum number of cards possible and the maximum number of key cards.
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